Planning for Extremes:
Addressing Climate Change Impact on Soil and Water Conservation

View the final report (4/25/2007).

View the press release (5/8/2007).

View the workshop agenda with abstracts, papers, and presentations (11/1-3/2006).

Project summary:

The Soil and Water Conservation Society (SWCS) has undertaken a joint U.S.-Canada project to follow up on the findings of its 2003 report “Climate Change: Soil Erosion and Runoff from Cropland.”  The project focuses on the Great Lakes as a model region of concern to evaluate options for incorporating effects of extreme weather events into conservation planning and pollution prevention efforts. The final report highlights differences in planning approaches that address observed and projected trends of extreme weather events versus current planning for long-term average conditions. For the report, SWCS developed specific recommendations for changes in policy, planning, and practice based on the white papers and workshop deliberations.

The 2003 SWCS report concluded that upward trends in total precipitation, coupled with more extreme precipitation events are currently compromising conservation efforts, and that these trends will increase (see Climate Change report).  Observed heavy rainfall frequency has already increased erosion, and predicted increased frequency of heavy rain events could increase soil erosion 95 percent, and increase runoff 100 percent. Current conservation planning, based largely on long-term average climate, fails to protect resources and environmental quality during severe storms when most damage occurs.  Conservation planning technology, used in the U.S. and adapted for Canada, very likely underestimates the risk of erosion and polluted runoff because long-term average climate data mask the effect of severe storms. 

The Great Lakes Region was selected as the model region because: (1) observed and predicted changes in precipitation patterns are significant in the region, (2) economic and environmental implications in the region are large, and (3) a number of studies have been completed to-date that provide a solid foundation for making recommendations to ensure conservation plans and practices provide adequate protection for the Great Lakes and related soil and water resources as we move into the 21st century.

The project was sponsored by the Joyce Foundation, Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation, and Natural Resources Canada.